View from Brussels - January 2024

22 January 2024

2024 is the year when the world goes to the polls. Depending on who you believe, somewhere between a quarter and half of us globally will have the opportunity to exercise our democratic right this year. This includes the European Parliamentary elections in June which shall be followed by the crowning of a new European Commission President later in the year.

Ursula von der Leyen has not yet committed to serving a second term as President but the signs suggest she will put herself forward. First of all she needs to secure the nomination of the Centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) which will rubber-stamp her appointment in February, and then hope that the EPP – as it is projected to do – will emerge as the largest grouping in the Summer elections.

Judgement on Dr von der Leyen’s first term will likely centre on climate change, the EU’s approach to Ukraine and the vaccine rollout. The most contentious of these is her administration’s approach to green rules which has encountered opposition amongst some Member States, including her own country, Germany. It is being reported that next month the Commission will back a 90% cut in EU emissions by 2040 as part of the roadmap to deliver climate neutrality by 2050. As a proponent of the Green Deal, Dr von der Leyen is putting her political ambitions at risk given that the EPP has been amongst the most vocal in calling for a recalibration on environmental issues to reflect the interests of some within the automotive and agricultural sectors.

The Commission President will also come under pressure from the EPP to adopt a tougher line on migration, with a call to triple the number of EU border guards (from 10,000 to 30,000), process more asylum applications outside the EU and to strike more deals with non-EU countries to deter migrants.

In order to secure a legacy, Dr von der Leyen will set out plans in February to focus on reforming the EU to accommodate future enlargement, including Ukraine and the Balkans. In contrast, little has been heard from the Socialists and Democrats who will finish runners-up in the elections. They have selected the little-known Luxembourger Commissioner, Nicholas Schmit as their Presidential candidate on the basis that no one else put themselves forward.

Published 22 Jan 2024