View from Brussels - March 2024

26 March 2024

It is less than three months to go before EU citizens go to the polls to elect their MEPs. Current projections show that the traditional forces of Christian Democrats (EPP) and Social Democrats (S&D) will no longer be able to command a majority. Only once the Renew (the successor to the Liberal group which draws on Macron’s centrist force in France) seats are included is a more moderate majority likely to prevail.

Parties of the harder right are expected to creep up towards 30% of the vote. Of course, the European elections – rather like local elections or better still, by-elections – are regarded by many as the opportunity to deliver a protest vote but this trend reflects the rise in populist movements opposed to immigration and climate change policy. Lately, farmers have taken to the streets across several European cities to object to plans which they say would threaten their livelihoods.

Yesterday, EU Member States agreed to postpone plans to adopt a Nature Restoration plan which would have introduced ambitious biodiversity targets as part of the goal to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Environmentalists believed they had cleared the biggest hurdle last month when the European Parliament approved the plan, but EU rules require both bodies to agree for a proposal to be adopted. The reality was that plans to set aside land to enable restoration of natural habitats and species would push some farmers to the brink of bankruptcy. This follows the EU’s decision last week to cap the volume of duty-free imports from Ukraine of certain agricultural products following a backlash from EU producers.

This U-turn is another reminder that trying to tackle climate change is a matter of trade-offs. It is more challenging during a cost-of-living crisis. Examples abound across the continent of governments watering down electric vehicle targets or diluting plans to phase out more polluting products. There is nothing like having an election on the horizon to focus politicians’ minds!

Published 26 Mar 2024