View from Whitehall - December 2023

14 December 2023

As we approach Christmas, festive cheer is in short supply within the governing party as it lurches from one internal spat to another. Meanwhile the pretender to the crown, Sir Keir Starmer felt sufficiently emboldened to highlight Margaret Thatcher’s premiership as one of the more remarkable over the post-war period. Up to a year out from a plebiscite, where will the election be won and lost?

To quote James Carville Bill Clinton’s 1992 election strategist, “It’s the economy, stupid”. Central to this will be how heavily the cost-of-living plays out. Households will benefit in January from a cut in national insurance but will this be dwarfed by still significant housing and utility costs? And moreover, whether the electorate believes that an incoming Labour Government would fare any better.

Then there’s the question of public services, foremost amongst them the NHS. Traditionally the most trusted party, Labour will be judged on whether they can deliver improvements within existing fiscal constraints. The Government’s handling of the pandemic and the traditional Winter pressures mean the Government will be on the back foot.

It is likely that in the coming months unforeseen issues will emerge which could tilt the balance. Today’s headlines are dominated by the Middle Eastern conflict – more problematic for Labour – and immigration, chosen by the Government but so far achieved nothing more than to highlight Conservative Party divisions. But perhaps life will throw a political curveball. That remains the best hope for a divided Conservative Party.

Published 14 Dec 2023