View from Brussels/Whitehall

Welcome to a blog by Edward Simpson, FLA Director of Government Affairs & Stakeholder Engagement, which considers developments from across The Channel and closer to home on an alternate monthly basis. 

24 April 2024

With local and mayoral elections on the horizon and a general election expected in the Autumn, the Government’s focus is on mitigating its low opinion poll ratings. It must also face the fact that 63 Conservatives (plus 6 elected as Tories at the last election but now without the whip) will stand down at the next election, including more than a dozen former Secretaries of State. This is not a resounding vote of confidence on the Conservatives returning to the government benches. The total of 101 declared MPs from all parties remains short of the 149 total of 2010 but is seen by commentators as evidence that the Rishi Sunak administration has run out of steam even if extenuating reasons exist for some including the re-drawing of constituency boundaries or personal health issues.   

The Conservative Party is committed to meeting Rishi Sunak’s five pledges which is why so much effort is invested in the Rwanda legislation. Beyond that, the ban on the sale of cigarettes for future generations is an attempt by the PM to create a legacy (rather as Theresa May did with the 2050 Net Zero target during her final days).

The King’s Speech last November was designed to send political signals on reducing public sector strikes and imposing tougher sentences for serious crime, but the much-heralded plans to empower residential leaseholders have had to be scaled back. The Government’s messaging on environmental issues reflects the recalibration by governments across Europe as businesses wait for what this change looks like. It appears that the Conservatives’ election strategy boils down to whether they can convince voters that they can be more trusted than Labour with the public purse. The Prime Minister’s pitch is “stick with us, we will bring change”, while Labour tell voters that only they can deliver the change the country needs. Soon enough, we’ll find out who will get the chance to fulfil their promise.