View From Brussels - May 2021

The Germans will decide in September who should replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor after 16 years at the helm. Annalena Baerbock, the Co-Leader of the Green Party is being tipped in some quarters as her successor. Today’s German Green Party is pragmatic rather than wedded to the ideology of old clearly helped by the fact that climate change is at the forefront of global politics. The Party has dropped its total opposition to genetically modified crops, for example. Where the Greens do stand out is their firm opposition to Nord Stream 2 a natural gas pipeline connection with Russia, which is near completion and has been championed by Mrs Merkel. They also favour a tough line on dealings with China to reflect concerns over the latter’s approach to human rights. Meanwhile all the other parties, including the erstwhile dominant forces of Christian and Social Democracy, are struggling to find their own identities.

France go to the polls in April 2022 to decide whether to re-elect President Macron who in 2017 won twice as many votes as his challenger Marine Le Pen appealing to a wide range of voters on the Left and the Right. Four years on, it remains unclear for many what En Marche, his political movement stands for perhaps in keeping with his past as an investment banker who later served as an economy minister in the Socialist Government. Some commentators have argued that M. Macron has cast aside political ideology in favour of creating a brand. Not dissimilar to accusations levelled at Boris Johnson. And like Mr Johnson, M. Macron has been accused of acting too slowly – and against prevailing scientific advice – to lock down the country in the early stages of the virus. But whilst Mr Johnson’s popularity remains high having enjoyed a good set of local, regional and by-election results earlier this month, his counterpart’s ratings have waned in the last couple of years. Latest opinion polls show Mrs Le Pen and her far-right Rassemblement National neck-and-neck with the incumbent. As with Germany, the electorate may be prepared to reject the traditional centrist forces.

Should either or both challengers emerge as their next national leaders, this could have significant repercussions for the European Union. Ms Baerbock believes the EU is too paralysed by the need to seek consensus illustrated by its inability to call for a ceasefire in the Israel / Palestine conflict. Meanwhile, Mme Le Pen has moved away from advocating ‘Frexit’ to favour a ‘Europe of Nations’ not dissimilar to those who led the charge on Brexit with a disdain for the Euro, open borders and a desire for France to take control of its immigration policy. As the UK enters a period of relative political calm, it will be our turn to observe from afar whether two of our closest European partners are prepared to take a chance on a new political approach.  

Published 26 May 2021